If/When the NBA returns: Effects of the break on each playoff team
At the moment of writing this, very little is known about how long the hiatus will last. Woj said it will 100% be at least two weeks before the league starts up, but seems very confident it will be significantly longer, citing a period of 10 weeks for the CBA in China. For this thought experiment, I'll assume the NBA's situation falls somewhere in between those two numbers.
The 2020 Playoffs were scheduled to start on April 18. That is approximately 5 weeks from today, and it seems like it might be difficult to meet that target.
I want to expand on a few ideas and assumptions that went into this, before I comment on how I think the break could affect teams:
MONEY
The League (and players) are going to want to get some of the revenue they were planning to get from the home stretch of the season and, more importantly, the playoffs. It directly affects everyone's pockets (not to mention salary cap implications - yikes!), so it will probably be easy to get people on board with starting things back up as soon as it is safe to do so. In other words, I think they are highly unlikely to just scrap the season and say "forget it."
SAFETY
Once the players have been through the quarantine process, it will be easier to establish protocols for monitoring people's temperatures, and overall health. Players will have to commit to sitting out and getting tested if they are feeling unwell or showing any symptoms. I suspect ironing out that process will take a month at least. That is the earliest I could see things starting up again. (update: Toronto Star’s Bruce Arthur has reported that teams were told the shutdown will be at least 30 days, validating this assumption)
However, in a month (or 6 weeks, or maybe even 10), I don't know how likely it is we'll be gathering groups of 20K people in a room together. All indications are that this is going to get a lot worse before it gets better, and I think it's reasonable to expect games to resume well before we are ready to let that many people into a building for a non-essential activity.
THE PRODUCT
The bread and butter of the NBA brand is the playoffs. That's where things go up a notch, and we get to see the stars on display. With that in mind, I don't think the NBA is going to shrink the playoffs. I don't think they'll go to an 8-team format, and I don't think they'll go to a best-of-5 or best-of-3 series. As typically scheduled, the playoffs take 2 months to complete. Some team owners have mentioned games potentially being played as late as August. If we work backwards from there, that means that if the playoffs start by June, there would be time to complete a 16-team typical playoffs. June is still over 11 weeks away so that seems like it's not an "out there" possibility. The NBA will maybe tighten the playoff schedule so that every team plays every other day, but that seems like the only adjustment they'd prefer to make. That TV revenue is just too valuable.
I also don't think the NBA will want to come back and jump straight into the playoffs. It would be nice to have a few games to let teams get back into the flow, and showcase some of those matchups between contenders that we missed out on (Raptors-Bucks, Lakers-Clippers, Celtics-Bucks, etc). This will also let fans get back into the narratives that the media weaves as we ramp up into the playoffs each year, and teams jockey for seeding.
On a very pragmatic level, if the league is going to be broadcasting games without fans - an entirely new experience - they will likely want some time to iron out the kinks and make it look as slick as possible. Additionally, it will allow the league to even up the schedule so that, at the very least, all teams can play the same number of games.
So for all those reasons, I think we'll see a short regular season period before the playoffs. It might be 3 games, it might be 10. It depends how long the quarantining process takes, and how severe the pandemic becomes.
So with all of my thinking laid out, and with all of those assumptions made, here are what I think some of the effects could be when (if) basketball resumes.
THE IMPACT ON BASKETBALL
HEALTH & MOMENTUM
If the playoffs wind up being 8-10 weeks away now, instead of just 5, that could have major impacts on teams with injured players.
This break could also let some struggling teams regroup and attack the end of the season with purpose, or it could take the wind out of the sails for a team that is on fire right now.
EASTERN CONFERENCE TEAMS
BUCKS: Giannis has a knee sprain that's going to hold him out at least a week. If he can fully take 5+ weeks off instead of maybe just 2, that will get him much closer to 100%. I don't think there's much of a momentum impact with the Bucks. They're cruising, and I suspect they'll continue to cruise.
RAPTORS: The Raptors have the third-best record in the league, despite the fact that they've had at least two of their top 7 guys out in a huge portion of their games. This week, one game after Marc Gasol returned from month-plus absence, Norman Powell left the game with an ankle injury. Fred VanVleet has an injury that's held him out over a week, and before he got hurt, Serge Ibaka was out with Gasol. It's a neverending carousel. With a break like this, the Raptors will be fully healthy for the first time this season, and they will be deadly.
CELTICS: The Celtics could use some healing time as well. Jaylen Brown has been out with a hamstring strain for over a week now, and it feels like he's not really close. Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart have each missed >10 games. Some time off will do them good.
HEAT: Maybe not quite the same fire-power as the guys the Raptors and Celtics have been missing, but the Heat have been without Meyers Leonard and Tyler Herro for quite a while, and the team's been performing quite poorly in their absence. Those two were giving Miami good minutes that have since gone to the likes of Kelly Olynyk. Taking those back will be valuable. Also, Butler has been subpar lately, and I've heard people speculate that he is playing through an injury. That could be true, and if so, then some recovery time will really help.
PACERS: For the Pacers, Malcolm Brogdon is week-to-week. Jeremy Lamb obviously won't be back, but Brogdon's return gives them a valuable piece and raises their ceiling considerably.
SIXERS: Just today, the Sixers said Ben Simmons will be re-evaluated in 3 weeks. More time could see him back in better form and breathe new life into the Sixers, who have struggled throughout this middle section of the season as Embiid and Simmons have struggled a bit with injuries.
NETS: I don't think the Nets would risk it, but the return of KD is looming large, and he could come in and give the Nets fans a pop of fun, even if it's tough to see him elevating a team past the first round so soon after returning. I feel like it would be a rush for Kyrie in any case after his surgery. The Nets will probably chill.
MAGIC: Like the Nets, they won't want to rush Jonathan Isaac back, even if it were theoretically possible. They'll have Fournier back, which will be a shot in the arm, but I doubt they'll want to throw Isaac straight into the playoffs to face one of the most physical teams in the league.
OTHER EAST TEAMS: Sorry.
WESTERN CONFERENCE TEAMS
LAKERS: The Lakers have been fairly healthy, and were definitely in a groove heading into the suspension of the season. If anything, this break is likely to hurt them more than it helps, but it could be valuable to get Lebron some rest. On the plus side, it very much feels like the Lakers are ready for the playoffs, so maybe that will help them in their return.
CLIPPERS: Paul George, Kawhi, and Patrick Beverley have all missed a bunch of games this season. I don't think getting more rest for Kawhi is ever a bad idea. But the Clippers seemed like they were still trying to figure out their best rotation, and could have used some more games to get ready for the playoffs. My bigger concern would be what happens if the NBA does go to a more compressed schedule in the playoffs, where teams play every other day? Kawhi wore down through the playoffs last year, and he's been similarly load-managed this year. Definitely something to watch.
NUGGETS: Paul Millsap has missed about 20 games, so he could maybe use a little more rest, but otherwise the Nuggets have been pretty healthy, and frankly a little inconsistent. I don't really think this situation helps or hinders them.
JAZZ: The Jazz have been in a funk lately. They were doing poorly for about 5 games, then had a short winstreak against some bad teams, and then took a few more tough losses before the season suspension. Conley has missed over 20 games and has looked rough for stretches of the season. Maybe this time off gives the Jazz an opportunity to regroup and find a groove. But it felt like the Jazz definitely needed more regular season reps to get ready for the playoffs, and a truncated season could hurt them.
THUNDER: The Thunder have been fairly healthy other than a small injury to SGA, and they seem like a fairly well-oiled machine. Could have been nice to get Dort some more regular season reps, but it's not the end of the world. I don't think the additional time off really helps or hinders them too much.
ROCKETS: The Rockets made the Capela trade and then went on an incredible run that made people think they were legitimate contenders. Then they crashed and burned to a degree that made people think they were total frauds. The truth is, they're probably somewhere in the middle, and if there's a team who could use a chance to reset a little bit, get it together, and attack the game with renewed effort, it's Houston.
MAVERICKS: Luka has been having a little trouble with his wrist and could probably use a nice break right about now. Curry's also out at the moment, but it's only for something minor. Obviously Powell won't be back, and Jalen Brunson is out with a shoulder injury. He could potentially make a return, but the real value for Dallas here lies in getting Luka some rest.
GRIZZLIES: The Grizzlies are ready for the long-awaited return of JJJ. It might have been nice to get him some more reps with Ja before the playoffs, but getting healthy is more important. Brandon Clarke has been out with a torn quad and was already expected to return this season, so he'll get some extra rest as well. But ultimately, the biggest impact to the Grizzlies is the one I discuss in the next paragraph:
PELICANS/BLAZERS/KINGS/SPURS/SUNS: With a truncated season, I think it's difficult to envision any of these teams making up the 3-3.5 games they need to pass the Grizzlies. The league might only play 3-5 (or even 0) games before they playoffs begin. Even if they play 10, it's difficult to make up that ground in so few games. These teams would need to be almost perfect to move into the playoff picture.
I want to reiterate, this is all a thought experiment based on the assumptions I wrote at the top. Maybe it will get so bad the NBA scrap the season altogether. Maybe it will be over quickly and the league will be able to play the entirety of the remaining season. Who can say? Stay safe out there!
P.S. This is the sort of article I am planning on including with my Patreon when it goes live (currently scheduled for March 20, 2020, but subject to change given the current state of the league). You can also check out my YouTube Page, TooMuchHoops, and follow me on Twitter @Too_Much_Hoops!